Australia and the Global Financial Crisis

1points Posted 695 days, 4 hours ago by seancarmody

Over the last few months I have written a lot about the global financial crisis. My posts have focused on specific events as news has broken, ranging from a programming bug by Moody’s to the enormous US bailout plan and Government guarantees from Ireland to Australia. I followed this up with a piece that takes a broader perspective and provide an overview of how the crisis has unfolded and, more specifically, how Australia came to be caught up in the mess.

A year ago, many commentators were extolling the idea that Australia’s economy had “de-coupled” from the United States and Europe, and would continue to be powered by the rapid growth of China and other developing nations. Concerns about inflation meant that interest rates were rising and many felt Australia would escape the incipient economic slowdown in the developing world. Events have instead unfolded differently. The Federal Government has taken the extraordinary step of guaranteeing deposits held in all Australian banks, building societies and credit unions and the Reserve Bank of Australia has delivered an unexpected 1% cut in interest rates, citing heightened instability in financial markets and deteriorating prospects for global growth. This was an extraordinary turnaround. It is, of course, the result of Australia becoming ensnared in the global financial crisis that began in mid-2007 and has intensified ever since. But how and why did Australia get caught up in a mess that started with falling property prices in the US?

Visit the Stubborn Mule to read the full article.

Comments

Broken link in the above for the Moody’s bug. Should point here.

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Given that 9% of payroll is going into super every week, where is this money going at the moment ? and  given the huge amount of super already invested  (and we cannot just draw it out by law) on our behalf, surely these guys have a huge influence on the market so why are they apparently not supporting it and maybe in fact selling it down ?

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Based on admittedly anecdotal evidence, much of the new money flowing into superannuation funds at the moment is being parking in cash funds. Over the year as the share market has fallen, some funds who manage closely to target asset allocations (such as balanced funds) have been buying into the share market as their share allocations have been falling below the target percentage. Overall, much of the volatility in stock markets is occurring without huge trading volumes (for example, in Australia volumes appear to have fallen somewhat since the ban on short selling came into force).  If all of the super funds with their money in cash were to simultaneously shift into shares, it would certainly help push up prices, but the effect could easily be short lived. The next bit of bad news or price falls in Asia, Europe of the US would easily undo the effect of the inflow.

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